Roger Federer achieved a few milestones
last year. He regained the top spot when no one expected him to, he won another grand slam defying all the odds and in doing so he equalled Pete Samprass
record of winning 7 Wimbledon titles and crossed his idol’s mark of total timespent at the top spot.
For the first time in his career Roger
Federer has opted not to play any tournament or exhibition before the
Australian Open, and it will be tough to judge where he stands right now as
compared to his major rivals. The major Australian Open contenders, Andy Murray
played at Abu Dhabi and Brisbane International, while Novak Djokovic played at
Abu Dhabi and Hopman cup.
Let us have a look at Roger Federer’s
chances of winning the Australian Open crown for the 5th time in his
career.
Roger Federer and Australian Open
2013 – Based on the past performance of 2nd seeded players at
Australian Open
A 2nd seeded player has made
it to the quarter-finals of the Australian Open in 19 of the past 25 years.
The 2nd seeded players have
gone:
.
16-3 in the quarter-finals;
. 10-6 in the semi-finals; and
. 6-4 in the championship match.
This shows that Roger Federer indeed has
a good chance of making it to the end of the Australian Open.
It is interesting to note that a 2nd
seeded player has not only once before the quarter-finals in the last 10 years,
and only twice in the quarter-finals.
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| Image via guardian.co.uk |
However, a worrisome fact for Roger
Federer and his fans might be the fact that it has been 8 years since a 2nd
seeded player won the Australian Open. In-fact the last man to win Australian
Open as a 2nd seeded player was Roger Federer himself, back in 2004.
It was the Australian Open victory that propelled Roger Federer to the top spot
and hence started the era of Roger Federer.
Will Federer be able to break the spell
of bad luck casted on the 2nd seeded players since 2004 at the
courts of Melbourne or will he go down?
Roger Federer and Australian Open 2013 – Based on the past
performance of Roger Federer at the Australian Open
Roger Federer is an impressive 63-9
life-time at the Australian Open, winning the title on four occasions (2004,2006,2007
and 2010) . Roger Federer holds the record of most Australian Open titles in
the open era with Andre Agassi.
Roger Federer’s last title at the
Australian Open came in 2010, and since then he has failed to make it to the
championship match. Roger Federer fell
at the hands of Novak Djokovic in 2011 in the semi-finals in straight sets, 6-7(3),
5-7, 4-6 and in 2012 he came up short against Rafael Nadal in the semi-finals, 7-6(5),
2-6, 6-7(5), 4-6.
Roger Federer has never lost before the 3rd
round of Australian Open since his début at Australian Open in 2000.
An interesting thing to note is that
since his first title at Australian Open in 2004, Roger Federer has never lost
before the semi-finals of the Australian Open. Since 2004, his losses have come
at the hands of Marat Safin in the semi-finals in 2005, Novak Djokovic in the
semi-finals in 2008, Rafael Nadal in the championship match in 2009, Novak
Djokovic in the semi-finals in 2011 and Rafael Nadal in the semi-finals in
2012. Absence of Rafael Nadal from the Australian Open means that the only
problem Roger Federer will have at the Australian Open will be from Novak
Djokovic. Novak Djokovic, being the top seed will meet Roger Federer in the
final, if both players make it to the last step.
However, the story is far from over. Andy
Murray has won a grand slam, and he leads Roger Federer in the head to head
10-9, however Murray is 0-3 against Federer in grand slams. Tomas Berdych is
also one of the few players to have beaten Roger Federer at the grand slam, and
he was the last player to beat Federer at a grand slam, in the quarter-finals
of U.S Open, Juan Martin Delpotro and Jo Wilfried Tsonga are also from the
handful of players to have beaten Roger Federer at grand slam. For Roger
Federer to make a move, he will definitely love to see these players falling in
the other half of the draw.
Roger Federer is 31 years old and the
heat in Australia has been soaring, he will try his best to keep the points
short and conserve his energy. Roger Federer definitely has everything in him
to win another major and he proved everyone wrong when he won his first major
in more than 2 years at Wimbledon last year.
One of the things about Roger Federer is
that when tennis experts write him off, he marches back to remind them that he
is not done yet. He has done it before and he definitely can do it now.
Will Roger Federer bag his 5th
Australian Open title is a question I would love to see answered in
affirmative, but with the factors discussed above let us keep our fingers
crossed for the Swiss Mastero and see if he can defy the odds and win his 18th
major.
P.S : Stay tuned for the previews of Victoria Azarenka and Novak Djokovic.
For a preview of other players please refer below:
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