Janko Tipsarevic and Australian Open 2013

With the Australian Open just 7 days away, We will be looking into the chances that the top 8 seeds will have at the Australian Open this year. Yesterday we looked at the chances of Petra Kvitovaat the upcoming Australian Open. Today we will be looking at the chances of Janko Tipsarevic at the upcoming Australian Open.

With the withdrawal of Rafael Nadal from the Australian Open, Janko Tipsarevic will be the likely 8^th seed for the Australian Open. We will be analysing his chances based on two factors:

- the past results of players seeded 8^th at the Australian Open, and 

- the past performances of Janko Tipsarevic at the Australian Open.

Janko Tipsarevic and Australian Open – Based on the past results of 8^th seeds

Image via jtipsarevic.com

The Melbourne tennis courts have not loved the 8^th seed. An 8^th seed has never made it to the final of the Australian Open in the past 25 years, and has been to the semi-finals just once during the past 25 years. The only 8^th seeded player to make it to the semi-finals of Australian Open, since the surface changed from grass to hard court, was Mats Wilander, who did it way back in 1990. Based on the past results of the players seeded 8^th at Australian Open, Janko Tipsarevic has only 20% chance of making it to the quarter-finals of the Australian Open 2013, while there is a 80% probability that Janko Tipsarevic will fail to make it to the quarter-finals.

Tipsarevic is into the finals of the Chennai Open and has a good chance at lifting the trophy. He was a runner-up last year to Milos Raonic, but failed to carry that momentum into the Australian Open.

Will Tipsarevic follow the path set by the past players, or will he write his own destiny in the Australian Open?

Janko Tipsarevic and Australian Open – Based on the Tipsarevic’s past performances at Australian Open

Janko Tipsarevic has never loved the Melbourne tennis courts. He has a poor 9-8 record in Australian Open in his last 8 showings. This will be his 9^th visit to the tennis courts of Melbourne, and his second visit as a top 10 player. Tipsarevic’s best result in Australian Open came last year and in 2008, when he made it to the 3^rd round. Last year he lost in straight sets to Richard Gasquet, while in 2008 he lost in 4 sets  to then world no.1 Roger Federer.

There is an interesting pattern in Tipsarevic’s losses at Australian Open. If you neglect his last years’ result, all his losses at the Australian Open have come at the hands of players ranked above him.

Year	Janko Tipsarevic             Rank	Rank of   Opponent	Name of Opponent
2005	120	27	Dominik Hrbaty
2006	137	17	David Nalbandian
2007	64	8	Juan Carlos Ferrero
2008	49	1	Roger Federer
2009	46	20	Marin Cilic
2010	36	17	Richard Gasquet
2011	49	9	Fernando Verdasco
2012	9	18	Tommy Haas

If you see the above table you will note that Tipsarevic has lost to a player ranked below him at Australian Open just once and that was last year. This has to be a really good sign for him going into the Australian Open 2013. Although Tipsarevic has not been past the 3^rd round during his last 8 visits to Melbourne, this year might be his best chance of making his impact at the Australian Open.

Will Tipsarevic go beyond the 3^rd round and set a personal best showing at the Australian Open, or will he fail to make an impact. Let us wait and see.