Monday, 21 January 2013

David Ferrer vs Nicolas Almagro (Australian Open Quarter-Final Preview)

David Ferrer, Spanish no.2 and world no.5, meets Spanish no.3 and World no.11 Nicolas Almagro in the quarter-finals of Australian Open 2013. Ferrer is into the quarter-finals for the 3rd straight year, while Almagro is making his debut into the Australian Open quarter-final.

Ferrer will be aiming to reach his second Australian Open semi-final, while Almagro will be looking to book a place in his first grand slam semi-final.

Ferrer has reached his 5th straight Grand-Slam quarter-final, and will be looking to move on. The pair have met 12 times before, with Ferrer winning all the meetings.

Almagro has lost 2 sets while Ferrer has lost one set so far in the tournament. It should be a great match-up considering the level of both players. However, you can never rely on Almagro.

Let us have a look at the performance of the players so far in the tournaments.

The stats used have been avearge stats for the 4 matches played by players so far in the tournament.
Description     Ferrer           Almagro     
Aces          4         17
Double Faults          2          2
1st Serve %age        64%         56%
1st serve points won        72%         82%
2nd serve points won        56%         63%
Net points won        75%         67%
Break points won        46%         44%
1st serve return won        43%         25%
2nd serve return won        57%         60%
Winners         25         37
Unforced Errors         24         24

The match will come down to 3 things:

Serve: Almagro has clearly been serving better than Ferrer so far as the numbers indicate. An interesting thing is that Ferrer has lost serve 9 times and lost just one set, while Almagro has lost serve just 4 times and lost 2 sets. Almagro will have to increase his first serve percentage if he wants to have a chance against David Ferrer.

Winners-Unforced Errors: Ferrer has a differential of +1, while Almagro has a differential of +13. If Almagro keeps up this number and repeats it in the match against Ferrer, he will definitely stand a greater chance of winning thematch. Ferrer is one of the most atheletic and fit persons on the tour with one of the best defensive skills, Almagro will have to play smartly and patiently to have a chance against Ferrer.

Nerves: The player who lets the nerves in, will definitely go down. Ferrer handles his composure better than Almagro, and is more focused and concentrated, but just as Davydenko showed in Doha, Ferrer can be blown off court with offensive play.

Nicolas Almagro will come in looking for a few firsts. A first win over David Ferrer, a first major semi-final appearance and a first Australian Open semi-final, Ferrer on the other hand will be seeking to keep his quest of winning his maiden slam going on.

Pick : Ferrer in 4 sets 

Who do you think will prevail in this Spanish derby?

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