Monday 7 January 2013

Juan Martin Delpotro and Australian Open 2013

Juan Martin Del Potro was dubbed as the next big thing when he defeated Roger Federer to win his maiden slam at the U.S Open in 2009. However, a wrist injury derailed him and he has not been able to live up to that promise since his return. However, the way he ended last year was quite a promising thing. He ended the year with a win over Roger Federer in the final of Basel and defeated Federer again in the round robin of World Tour Finals, to clinch a spot in the semi-finals of World Tour Finals. Although he went down in the semi-finals, but he did that while fighting, he went down to Novak Djokovic in 3 sets in the semi-finals. 

He showed the flashes of his former self last year in several matches, the most notable being semi-final loss at the French Open at the hands of Roger Federer, despite being up 2 sets to love, and the way he fought in the semi-finals of Olympics against Roger Federer again, and the way he downed Novak Djokovic to win the bronze medal for Argentina.

Now that the seeds for the Australian Open 2013 are out, we know that Del Potro will be the 6th seed at the Australian Open. What are Del Potro’s chances at the Australian Open?

Juan Martin Del Potro and Australian Open – Based on the past results of 6th seeds
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Del Potro must be happy to know that a 6th seed has went on to win the Australian Open trophy twice in the past 25 years. Del Potro has the game suitable to hard courts with his big serve and blistering shots, and if he can hold himself together, he can compete at the top level with the top. His chances of making it out of the 4th round of the Australian Open are 36%, meaning he has a 64% probability of failing to make it to the quarter-finals.

Juan Martin Del Potro and Australian Open – Based on Del Potro’s past performances at Australian Open

Del Potro’s best showings at the Australian Open have come in 2012 and 2009, when he made it to the quarter-finals, however on both occasions he was defeated by Roger Federer in straight sets.
Del Potro is 14-6 life-time in Australian Open, and has been to the 4th round or better during his past 4 showings, excluding the 2011 Australian Open (since he was making a come-back from injury then).
Del Potro has never lost in the first round of Australian Open, and his ranking and level of play seem to make him continue that trend.
Will Del Potro be able to make an impact will also depend on the type of draw he gets at the Australian Open.
How far do you think will Del Potro go in the Australian Open?

You can find the probability of the other players at Australian Open via following links.

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