Roger Federer and Andy Murray will be
adding another chapter in their rivalry. Murray leads the series 10-9, but has
never defeated his Swiss rival in a grand slam and will be aiming to make it
4th time lucky in grand slam. All the 3 prior meetings in grand slam have come
in the finals, and they will meet each other for the first time in a grand slam
semi-final.
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| Image via espn.go.com |
Roger Federer has dropped two sets, both
in his quarter-final win over Tsonga, while Murray has yet to drop a set at
this tournament. Roger Federer will be looking to reach the Australian Open
final for the first time in 3 years, while Andy Murray will be aiming to reach
his second straight grand slam final.
The two have met before in the Australian
Open, the same year when Federer won his last Australian Open trophy, and it
was Murray he defeated to lay his hands on the trophy.
Let us have a look at what do numbers
suggest about the performance of the players so far in the tournament.
The stats used have been average stats for the 5 matches played by players so far in the tournament.
| Description | Federer | Murray |
| Aces | 9 | 10 |
| Double Faults | 2 | 0 |
| 1st Serve %age | 65% | 67% |
| 1st serve points won | 82% | 76% |
| 2nd serve points won | 59% | 48% |
| Net points won | 79% | 73% |
| Break points won | 29% | 58% |
| 1st serve return won | 30% | 41% |
| 2nd serve return won | 56% | 65% |
| Winners | 38 | 35 |
| Unforced Errors | 28 | 29 |
The match will come down to a few things:
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| Image via Guardian.co.uk |
Serve and Return: Roger Federer will have to sharp
on his serve. He had not dropped serve till his quarter-final clash against
Tsonga, where he got broken for 5 times. Federer has won 82% points behind his
first serve and will need to keep his first serve %age up. He showed some
lapses in his serve in his match against Tsonga, but he will have to raise his
level against Murray. Murray has won a good 41% points while returning the first
serve of his opponents so far in the tournament, so Federer will need to up his
level. Federer has been winning 59% points behind his 2nd serve, and will have
to be extra cautious since Murray has been eating up the 2nd serves of his
opponents so far winning 65% of points while returning the second serve of
opponents.
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| Image via telegraph.co.uk |
Andy Murray has won 76% points behind his
first serve, and considering Federer's not so good return (he is good but not
outclass), Murray should not have problem with winning points behind his first
serves. Federer has won 30% points while returning the first serve of his
opponents so far. However, the area Murray will have to improve on is his
second serve, where his first serve has been an asset, his second serve has
been somewhat of a liability as he won only 48% points behind his second serve
and Federer has won a goof 56% points returning the second serves of his
opponents. So Murray will need to keep up his first serve percentage.
Break Points Conversion: This will be one
of the most important things, Murray has converted a good 58% of the break
point opportunities he created, while Federer has capitalised only 30% of his
opportunities. Federer will have to improve on this, to stay out of trouble.
Winner-Unforced Errors: Federer has so far been playing cleaner
matches as compared to Murray. Federer will have to find the right mix of
aggression and defense against Murray, the way he used against Raonic and Tomic
(though both are very different when seen with Murray). If Federer lets his
unforced errors mount, he will definitely be in trouble. Murray on the other
hand will have to attack Federer's backhand.
In the quarter-final match of Federer against Tsonga, Tsonga was the better player, but it was Federer who walked away with the most crucial points, and hence the match. In this semi-final match-up it will again come down to the important points, the player who seizes the moment and takes those critical points will definitely have a better chance.
The form of both players suggests that it
will be a good match. The player coming out firing will have an edge.
Who do you think will win? My heart will
be going Rogerisque but my mind will be going Murrisque.
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