Wednesday 9 January 2013

Agnieszka Radwanska and Australian Open 2013

Agnieszka Radwanska is into the semi-finals of Sydney, where she will face Chinese Stalwart Li Na. Winning streak will be at stake for both top 10 players. Radwanska is yet to drop a set while Li Na dropped a set in her quarter-final win over American teenager Madison Keys.

Agnieszka Radwanska will enter the Australian Open as one of the contenders, being seeded 4th, she will land either in Victoria Azarenka’s half or Maria Sharapova’s half. Radwanska must be hoping for a place in Maria Sharapova’s half owing to her beat downs last year at the hands of Victoria Azarenka.

Let us see what is the probability of Agnieszka Radwanska doing well at the Australian Open.

Agnieszka Radwanska and Australian Open – Based on the past performances of 4th seeded players

Radwanska and her fans must be very happy to know that the 4th seeded players are an impressive 25-0 in the first round of the Australian Open. No player seeded 4th has lost in the first round of Australian Open since 1988 when the tournament changed surface from grass to hard court.
It is interesting to note that during the past 12 years 4th seeded players have gone:
. 12-0 in the first 2 rounds of Australian Open;
. 11-1 in the third round of Australian Open;
. 10-1 in the 4th round of Australian Open; and
. 9-1 in the quarter-finals of Australian Open.

Radwanska has a high probability of continuing that trend and making it to the quarter-finals at least. A 4th seeded player has won the Australian Open twice. However it was way back in 1995 and 1997. In 1995 Mary Pierce as a 4th seed went to claim the Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup. In 1997 Martina Hingis, as the 4th seed went on to claim the trophy and become the youngest grand slam champion at the age of 16 years and 3 months.

4th seeded Sahrapova was the runner up last year at the Australian Open.

Radwanska has a good 68% chance of making it out of the 4th round and a huge 56% chance of making it to the semi-finals.

How will Radwanska fare will also depend on who she draws for the quarter-final from the seeds 5-8, and how fresh she is feeling. Will Radwanska finally lay her hands on the  Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup, remains to be seen.

Agnieszka Radwanska and Australian Open – Based on the past performances of Radwanska at the Australian Open

Radwanska is 15-6 life-time at the Austrlaian Open and has made it to the quarter-finals for the last two years losing to the eventual champion both times. In 2011, she lost to Kim CLijsters 3-6 6-7(4). Clijsters went on to claim the trophy and in 2012 she lost to Victoria Azarenka in the quarter-finals 7-6 0-6 2-6. Azarenka went on to win the title diposing Sharapova in the final in straight sets.

Radwanska is yet to make it to the semi-finals of the Australain Open. She has been to the quarter-finals of Australain Open 3 times in her previous 6 appearances, and would love to go one better.

A major concern for Radwanska will be that she is 3-11 vs Victoria Azarenaka, 2-7 vs Maria Sharapova, and 0-3 vs Serena Williams. She is a combined 3-21 against the top 3 WTA players and will have to go through 2 of them if the seedings hold in order to lay her hands on the trophy. Given her head to head against the top 3 players, it is going to be an up-hill battle for Radwanska, not only up-hill but a very steep one too.

However, Radwanska is red hot so far and is yet to drop a set. She is 7-0 since the start of the year. Will this preparation be good enough to carry Radwanska off to the Australian Open, only time will tell us.

I will close the article with a quote from Radwanska which she said when asked about her goals for 2013:

“The goals every year are pretty much the same - being No.1 and winning the Grand Slams. Last year I was very close to both of them."

Stay tuned for the previews of David Ferrer, Serena Williams, Andy Murray, Maria Sharapova, Roger Federer, Victoria Azarenka and Novak Djokovic.

For a preview of other players please refer below:


  1. It seems Radwanska is really determined this year to reach her goals. So far she's been the most consistent which is a great start. She has a good chance in first half of a season because Azarenka has many points to defend.

  2. Radwanska had a really good test in Li Na today, which she won in straight sets. I hope she has resolved the Azarenka and Serena problem in the off-season. Radwanska too has a load of points to defend in the first half, since she went toe to toe with Azarenka last year.