Saturday 5 January 2013

Janko Tipsarevic and Australian Open 2013

With the Australian Open just 7 days away, We will be looking into the chances that the top 8 seeds will have at the Australian Open this year. Yesterday we looked at the chances of Petra Kvitovaat the upcoming Australian Open. Today we will be looking at the chances of Janko Tipsarevic at the upcoming Australian Open.

With the withdrawal of Rafael Nadal from the Australian Open, Janko Tipsarevic will be the likely 8th seed for the Australian Open. We will be analysing his chances based on two factors:
- the past results of players seeded 8th at the Australian Open, and 
- the past performances of Janko Tipsarevic at the Australian Open.

Janko Tipsarevic and Australian Open – Based on the past results of 8th seeds

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The Melbourne tennis courts have not loved the 8th seed. An 8th seed has never made it to the final of the Australian Open in the past 25 years, and has been to the semi-finals just once during the past 25 years. The only 8th seeded player to make it to the semi-finals of Australian Open, since the surface changed from grass to hard court, was Mats Wilander, who did it way back in 1990. Based on the past results of the players seeded 8th at Australian Open, Janko Tipsarevic has only 20% chance of making it to the quarter-finals of the Australian Open 2013, while there is a 80% probability that Janko Tipsarevic will fail to make it to the quarter-finals.
Tipsarevic is into the finals of the Chennai Open and has a good chance at lifting the trophy. He was a runner-up last year to Milos Raonic, but failed to carry that momentum into the Australian Open.

Will Tipsarevic follow the path set by the past players, or will he write his own destiny in the Australian Open?

Janko Tipsarevic and Australian Open – Based on the Tipsarevic’s past performances at Australian Open

Janko Tipsarevic has never loved the Melbourne tennis courts. He has a poor 9-8 record in Australian Open in his last 8 showings. This will be his 9th visit to the tennis courts of Melbourne, and his second visit as a top 10 player. Tipsarevic’s best result in Australian Open came last year and in 2008, when he made it to the 3rd round. Last year he lost in straight sets to Richard Gasquet, while in 2008 he lost in 4 sets  to then world no.1 Roger Federer.
There is an interesting pattern in Tipsarevic’s losses at Australian Open. If you neglect his last years’ result, all his losses at the Australian Open have come at the hands of players ranked above him.

   Year     Janko Tipsarevic  
    Rank of
Name of Opponent
 2005             120      27Dominik Hrbaty
2006          137      17David Nalbandian
2007            64        8Juan Carlos Ferrero    
2008            49        1Roger Federer
2009            46      20Marin Cilic
2010            36      17Richard Gasquet
2011            49        9Fernando Verdasco
2012              9      18Tommy Haas

If you see the above table you will note that Tipsarevic has lost to a player ranked below him at Australian Open just once and that was last year. This has to be a really good sign for him going into the Australian Open 2013. Although Tipsarevic has not been past the 3rd round during his last 8 visits to Melbourne, this year might be his best chance of making his impact at the Australian Open.

Will Tipsarevic go beyond the 3rd round and set a personal best showing at the Australian Open, or will he fail to make an impact. Let us wait and see. 

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