Thursday 2 August 2012

Federer vs Isner (Olympics 2012 Quarter-Final Preview)

Federer has reached the quarter-finals of Olympics for the 3rd time, and he has progressed out of the Olympics only for one time (2000). Isner has made it to the quarter-finals on his debut in Olympics and will be keen on winning  a medal for USA. Isner is one of the two players who have yet to lose a set (the other being Almagro).

Description                                      Federer        Isner
Match record this year                       49-6              33-13
H2H                                                    3                    1
H2H on grass                                      0                     0

Federer will be keen to win this match to earn a place in the medal match, while Isner will walk into the match knowing that he can win against the world no.1, having done it before as well in Davis Cup on clay this year.

Isner is 9-20 against the top 10 players, with his most recent win coming over Tipsarevic. Isner is having been having a stellar year, with wins over Feder (Davis Cup) and Djokovic (Indian Wells Semi-finals).

Let us have a look at the stats of the players so far in the tournament:

Description                                                            Federer                 Isner
Aces                                                                            6                          20
Double Faults                                                               0                           1
First Serve                                                                  66%                      75%
Points won on first serve                                              75%                     86%
Points won on second serve                                         54%                     61%
Receiving points won on first serve                               33%                     28%
Receiving points won on second serve                          65%                     43%
Break points                                                                77%                     36%
Total winners                                                               30                         36  
Unforced errors                                                           19                         15  
Net points won                                                            77%                      74%

The major factors that will be playing a part in today's match will be:

First Serve and points won behind first serve: It will be important for both players to hold the serve. Isner has been serving lights out so far in the tournament, making 75% of his first serves and winning 86% of those, while Federer has been making only 66% of first serves and has won only 75%, 11% less points as compared to Isner, behind his first serve. If Federer is to move past the Ace Machine, he will have to keep the numbers of his serve up.

Points won behind second serve: Federer has won only 54% points behind his second serve, whereas Isner has won 7% more points as compared to Federer.

Return Stats: Federer has won 5% more points when returning first serve and22% more points as compared to Isner when returning the second serve. Return of serve will be very crucial for both players.

Break Points: Winning the break points will be the deciding factor in the match, Federer has so far been broken 4 times, while Isner has not yet been broken in the tournament.

Isner has been playing cleaner matches as compared to Federer. Isner has +21 winners to unforced errors differential, while Federer has +11. Federer will have to bring out his A game to have chance against Isner, if Isner keeps on serving at the level he has been in the first 3 matches, and with no tie break in the third set, expect it to be another Isnerish match unless Federer makes his move and wins it before that.

Pick: Federer in 3 sets

Who do you think will win this match? Enjoy the Djokovic - Tsonga Quarter-Final preview here.

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