Saturday 4 August 2012

Federer vs Murray (Olympics 2012 Final Preview)

Federer defeated Delpotro in a marathon match, the longest 3 set match of open era, and the longest match in Olympic history to book his place in the gold medal match for the first time in 4th attempt. Murrray soon followed to join Federer, straight setting Djokovic. In doing so, Murray not only earned a place in gold medal match and set a re-match of the Wimbledon final a few weeks ago, but also guaranteed Federer's stay at the top spot.Murray ended up crying at the end of the Wimbledon final, while Federer was all smiles. Murray has earned himself a chance to get some revenge for the Wimbledon loss by winning a gold medal, while Federer will be keen on keeping Murray at bay to win the elusive gold medal. Both players will be hungry, but who will come out on top?

Description Federer Murray
Match record this year   51-6   37-10
H2H      8      8
H2H on grass      1      0
The pair is tied in their head to head, with the last 3 meetings going in Federer's way. The pair has already played twice this year, in the final of Dubai and in the final of Wimbledon. The Wimbledon loss was a heart breaker for Murray, but he has re-grouped and kept his head up for the Olympics and has played very solid tennis in making it to the finals. Federer on the other hand has played well enough to make it to the finals. 

Let us have a look at the performance of the players so far in the tournament.

Description Federer Murray
Aces 9 9
Double Faults 1 1
First Serve 67% 65%
Points won on first serve 76% 81%
Points won on second serve 59% 59%
Receiving points won on first serve 30% 35%
Receiving points won on second serve 53% 53%
Break points 36% 41%
Total winners 36 27
Unforced errors 22 14

The stats show that the two have been equal in almost all departments, with Murray having an edge in a few areas. The 4 critical factors will be:

- 1st serve and points won first serve: Murray has a clear edge on Federer as he has won 5% more points on his first serve as compared to the Swiss. The last time the two squared off on Centre Court Murray won only 69% of his first serves, while Federer ended up winning 76% of his first serves. Murray will have to win around 76% plus points on first serve if he wants to have chance against Federer. Federer served brilliantly in the second and third sets of his semi-final win, however, Murray is much better returner when compared to Delpotro. Federer will have to on guard on his serve.

- Points won on second serve: Both players have won 59% points on their second serves. Second serve will be very important for both players, the one who goes on to take his chances on others second serve will have more chances to come out on top.

- Receiving points won: Murray has won a whooping 5% more points as compared to Federer when returning the first serve of his opponents, however they are locked in for the points won while returning the second serve. In their past 16 clashes, the player with the aggressive ratio of more than 1 has gone on to win the match, so this factor will be very important for both players. The one willing to take calculated chances from the start will stand a better chance.

- Winners-Unforced Errors Differential :  This is one of the most important areas. Federer's W-UE differential is +14, while Murray stands at +13. It will be very crucial for Federer to keep his unforced errors under control. Both players will try not to gift free points to the other.

Another interesting thing to note, which of-course will be worrisome for Federer's fan, is that Murray has only been broken 2 times during the entire tournament, and both times occurred in his 3 sets win over Baghdatis. No other player has been able to break Murray's serve. Federer on the other hand has been broken 6 times during the tournament. Will Federer's serve hod Murray's challenge or will it be Murray's serve that will give in to Federer?

This will be the first medal for both players at Olympics. Federer is trying to complete the career golden slam (all 4 majors + Gold medal in Olympics). Murray will be trying to avenge his loss, and more importantly establish himself as a major contender and put his doubters to silence.

It will all come down to the serve of the two and the unforced errors of Federer. If Federer can keep his unforced errors under control and keep his head together for his serve, he will be tough to beat. However, if Murray finds his range and keeps up his serve, he will definitely make things tough for the Wimbledon Champion.

My heart is going Federisque, while my mind is going Murrisque. Who do you think will win the gold?


  1. I suggest you to follow your heart. Federer has a great chance to win thanks to his burning bright spirit. And fortune favors the braver.

    I didn't bother to think about Federer's chance from the start. Looking at his draw, I know it was going to be tough for him even without Nadal at sight. Isner and Delpo were there, those big hitters. Falla and Benneteau had history too with him.

    But I know, Federer has a big heart needed to impose his will on the quest of immortality. So far it's proven true.

    Yes, he has difficult match against Del Potro. But what doesn't kill you only makes you stronger. Once again, it's his champion spirit that will carry him to clinch the gold by defying all odds. So, follow your heart.

    I don't think about anything else. I only feel, somehow no matter what's going to happen, Federer would end up winning the match. Simply because he is a genius with a champion's heart.

  2. Well, actually... to make it short, Federer is something...

    You don't even have to think, you just believe in Federer. LOL

  3. @traudl - bravo, agree with everything you said. Federer for Gold!

  4. Interesting stats... but they often go out the window in the finals... I think this will be close, closer than Wimby maybe.

  5. You need to redo your stats. Fed had 24 aces in last match alone, not 9 for entire tournament.

  6. @d0d95ba9b074131afe865bd2273540e2:disqus These are the average stats per match for the last 5 matches played by both players. Yes, Fed hit 24 aces in the last match, but in total he has hit 45 aces in 5 matches, so that makes 9 aces per match :)

  7. @peRFectTennisUK:disqus Thanks for the appreciation :) Yup you are right, Murray's stats were good before WImby final as well, and were good for the first 2 sets of the final as well, but from then on his performance deteriorated. Let us hope for a great match :)

  8. @yahoo-MUV772FZQHQXF7W6NKBUOQDSKQ:disqus Keeping fingers crossed for Federer :)

  9. @ec827b9b85d63cab5af61213bc9b5966:disqus Completely agreed. Fed had a tougher draw in that he had those guys in his half he had trouble with, but he no doubt showed the fighting spirit of a true champion he is, in making it to the final, and I agree that Delpo's match will make him stronger, hopefully.

    I have been following my heart when it comes to Federer, keeping fingers crossed for him always :)
    He will hopefully end up with the gold.

  10. So Murry has done it! I think that this victory has erased the painful memories from Wimbledon... :-)

  11. Yup, finally he has done it! And yup it must be the best win of his career so far and I think it will give him the confidence to do well in the semi-finals and finals of Slams. This might be the moment he had been looking for.