Thursday 2 August 2012

Djokovic vs Murray (Olympics 2012 Semi-Final Preview)

Olympics are nearing their end and we have only 4 players left in the draw. The mighty Fed, The Serbian Magician, The Super Scot, and the Argentine Tower.

Federer will be paying Delpotro for a spot in the final, while Djokovic will tough it out against Murray for a gold medal match spot.

Murray put up an impressive performance to topple Almagro and book a place in the medal match, Djokovic followed suit with win over dangerous Tsonga to set up a block-buster semi-final match.

Murray made it to the Wimbledon finals, while Djokovic dropped out in the semi-finals to eventual champion Federer. Murray will be keen on advancing to the gold medal match, but so will Djokovic be. Djokvic was the bronze medallist at the Beijing games in 2008, and is the only Olympic medallist left in the draw.

Description Djokovic Murray
Match record this year   45-7   36-10
H2H      8      5
H2H on grass      0      0

The last time the two played was in the final of Miami,  Djokovic came out on top in straight sets. Surprisingly the two have played on hard courts and on clay, but never on grass. This will be their first meeting on grass.

Murray has lost only one set so far in the tournament, while Djokovic has lost 2 sets in making it to the semi-finals.

Let us have a look at the performance of the players so far in the tournament:

Description Djokovic Murray
Aces 11 11
Double Faults 1 2
First Serve 68% 65%
Points won on first serve 81% 83%
Points won on second serve 53% 62%
Receiving points won on first serve 35% 37%
Receiving points won on second serve 56% 55%
Break points 50% 39%
Total winners 32 27
Unforced errors 14 14

The stats show that the match will come down to 3 things:
- First serve and points won on first serve:
 Djokovic has been serving 3% more than Murray, but Murray has won 2% more points behind his first  serve than Djokovic. The first serve will be critical for both players, especially for Murray since Djokovic is one of the best returners on tour at the moment. The player who will manage to keep his first serve up will stand a better chance.

- Points won behind second serve
  Murray has so far been very efficient on his second serves and of all the 4 players standing in the draw, he   has won the most points behind his second serve. Djokovic will have to raise his second serve winning %age, knowing that Murray has won 55% points when returning the second serves.

Break points
Both players have been very efficient on serve, Murray has face only 8 break points and has been able to save 6 of them, meaning Murray has been broken only twice in the tournament, and both times happened in his 3rd round win over Baghdatis. Djokovic on the other hand, has face 11 breakpoints and has been able to save 7 of them, being broken 4 times.

It will come down to nerves and serves. Both players know how to handle the pressure. One factor that will go in Murray's favour will be the crowd, if Djokovic lets the crowd get into his head, he will go down.

Pick: Djokovic in 3 sets

Who are you rooting for?


  1. I suppose that Andy has even more chances to go through th final than Djoker does:
    1) Murray leeds 5-2 in previous seven three-setters
    2) TheBritish is incredibly mentally strong now, even the loss in the final of SW-19 didn't let him down
    3) Djoker made some terrible mistakes in the second set with Jo when he was under pressure...
    4) As you mentioned Murray serves brilliantly during last month...

    All this, IMHO, gives Andy a slight edge above Nole today

  2. Nikita Odoevsky Yes, I agree with you in a way, Andy himself said that the home crowd brings out the best in him, and Djokovic has had problems when the crowd is going against him. It will be an interesting match to watch.

    I agree with your point that he is mentally more strong now, he has a great fighting spirit as well. Let us hope for a great match.