Friday 6 July 2012

Swiss Maestro or British Hopes (Federer vs Murray Wimbledon 2012 Final Preview)

There is a lot on line in this match for both players, for one it will be a record equalling 7th Wimbledon title and with that coveted World no.1, for other it will be his first major title, and he will become the first British player of the Open Era to win Wimbledon.

This is the first time since the Australian Open 2011, that neither Nadal nor Djokovic is the final of a Grand Slam.

Federer is coming off a great win over World no.1 and reigning Wimbledon chmapion, Novak DjokovicMurray, on the other hand is coming off a confidence boasting win over French Power hitter, Tsonga.

Let us have a look at the performance of the players so far this year:

Description      Federer    Murray    
YTD Match Record        45-6       32-9
H2H          7          8
Wimbledon Best Result        Winner          F
Year of best Result2003-07 & 2009      2012

Murray leads the H2H 8-7, but he will not be happy going into the match knowing that in his previous 2 encounters against Federer in the Grand Slam Finals he went down in straight sets. (2008 U.S Open and 2010 Australian Open). In fact, those 2 were the only times they have faced each other in a Grand Slam. All of their meetings have come on hard courts, and this will be the first time that they will meet on grass. Federer has won the pairs' last two encounters, the most recent coming in the final of Dubai this year.

Let us have a look at the performance of the players so far in the tournament: 

Description   Federer      Murray   
Aces      10     12
Double faults        1       2
1st serves in     66%     63%
1st serve points won     79%     77%
2nd serve points won       61%     65%
Net points won     72%     66%
Break points won     44%     37%
Receiving points won     44%     40%
Winners     32     40
Unforced errors    13     17
* I have used the average stats per match for their last 6 matches at Wimbledon.

There are 3 things separating the two if we talk in terms of the numbers:

-1st serve and points won on 1st serve: Federer has been serving well so far, and his serve has been too good in his QF and SF victories, he has been serving on average 3% more than Murray and has been winning 2% more points behind his 1st serve when compared to Murray. This no doubt will be the most important factor in the match. The player who will loose his serve first will be in grave danger. Murray has been broken 11 times so far in the tournament, Federer on the other hand has been broken 7 times. 

-Points won on 2nd serve: Murray has won on average 65% points behind his second serve so far in the tournament, Federer on the other hand has won 61%. Second serve will be the key, and both players will be keen on taking advantage of the other player's second serve.
Murray has won at least 40% points while returning Federer's 2nd serve during his 8 victories over Federer, Federer on the other hand hand has won at least 41.2% points while returning Murray's second serve during his 7 victories over the British player.

-Receiving points won: Federer has won 4% more points as compared to Murray on return of serve. Return of serve will be crucial for both the players, since it will earn them a chance to break others serve and move ahead.

Federer must serve the way he served in his semi-final match if he wants to have a chance against Murray. Murray has great defensive skills but at the same time he can be offensive. Murray will be keen to extract some revenge and given the history of their rivalry, Federer may be in danger. However, it will all depend on which Roger Federer shows up, the one we saw in the semi-finals against Djokovic or the one we saw against Haas in the Halle final? 

Federer will not have to let his concentration lapses haunt him during the final, and he must keep the tally of his unforced errors under-control like he has been doing for during his previous 6 matches here.

With so much on the line for both players, expect it to be an epic. It is only the second time in the Open Era that a 3rd and 4th seed are meeting in the final of Wimbledon. The last time it happened was way back in 1976, when 4th seeded Borg defeated 3rd seeded Nastase. Will Federer, the 3rd seed be able to win?

During the Open Era a 3rd seed has won Wimbledon 4 times, Edgberg being the last 3rd seed to win Wimbledon in 1990, whereas a 4th seed has won Wimbledon thrice during the Open Era. The last 4th seed to win Wimbledon was none other than Andy Murray's opponent in the final, yes, Roger Federer in 2003.

Federer in his last 7 Wimbledon finals has gone 6-1. The only man to beat Federer in Wimbledon final was Nadal in 2008. In fact only two players have beaten Federer in Grand Slam Final, Nadal (6times) and Del Potro (once). Will Andy Murray become only the 3rd player to beat Federer in a Grand Slam and only the second man to beat Federer in Wimbledon Final, remains to be seen.

Who do you think will walk away with the title?

Will Federer's Aura be too much for Murray to handle or Will the hopes of Nation lift Murray up and push Federer down?

I won't be picking one guy out this time, I leave it to you guys to decide who will walk away with his dreams fulfilled and history made.

P.S: My heart was constantly going roger while jotting this down ;)


  1. Jesus, you some technical analyst? Why don't you use some Fibonacci retracements, Elliott waves and Bollinger bands too? You guys make a plain ball game seriously sick.

  2. Great Work again and a well piece of text to. I find it very interesting that somone makes the effort to do stuff like this. I am so looking forward to the final and the question is if i can sleep tonight. The statistics goes for Roger but in the semifinal it was in favour for Novak and we all know what happned there. I hope roger can bring his agame in that case I think he will win. But he must be 100percent the WHOLE game!

  3. Thanks for appreciation :) it really means a lot :)
    I too am looking forward to the final, been checking time constantly ;) and yup Fed will have to be sharp and aggressive from the start, if he let's Murray take hold of things he will be in trouble! Keeping my fingers crossed for him :)

  4. S- I am no technical analyst, just a common guy trying to use numbers to look into the performance of the players and sharing for those who also want to have a look at it!