Wednesday 4 July 2012

Majestic Swiss or Magical Serb (Djokovic vs Federer SF Preview Wimbledon 2012 in numbers)

Roger Federer walked onto the court today to break the spell that had been casted on him for the last two years at Wimbledon forcing him to bow out of Wimbledon at the QF stage (2010: Berdych, 2011: Tsonga) and break he did, marching into his 8th Wimbledon Semi-Final and keeping his hopes of regaining the top spot alive.

Djokovic, walked onto the court today in a bid to take move one step further ahead in his bid to defend the Wimbledon crown he won last year and the top spot he gained as a result of that win and move he did, making it to 4th Wimbledon Semi-Final and in the process setting a block - buster semi-final against world no.3 Roger Federer.

The Fedjo rivalry dates back to 2006 when the pair first met at Monte Carlo, a meeting won by Federer in 3 sets. They have played each other 25 times since then, making it a total of 26 times the pair has faced each other, with Federer leading 14-12, though Djokovic has won 6 of the pair's last 7 meetings. Interestingly, the pair has met on every surface and at every grand slam, other than Grass and Wimbledon respectively. This will be the pair's first meeting on grass.

Description   Djokovic        Federer
YTD Match Record      41-6       44-6
H2H        12        14
Wimbledon Best Result          Winner     Winner
Year of best Result      20112003-07 & 2009

Federer coming into this match has lost 3 sets,  2 in his comeback win over Benneteau in the 3rd round and one against Malisse in the 4th round. Djokvic on the other hand has lost only one set, in his 3rd round win over Stepanek. Djokovic has been broken 4 times so far in the tournament, while Federer has been broken 6 times.

Let us have a look at what do the stats (numbers) tell us about their performance so far at Wimbledon 2012.

Description   Djokovic      Federer   
Aces*        9        9
Double faults*        2        2
1st serves in      68%      67%
1st serve points won      79%      79%
2nd serve points won      58%      58%
Net points won      65%      75%
Break points won      51%     47%
Receiving points won      45%     46%
Winners*      40     38
Unforced errors*      16     16

* I have used the average aces, double faults, winners and Unforced errors per match

There is literally not much that separates them from each other in terms of stats, though Fed will have to have an excellent serve day, if he wants to have a chance against world no.1. They are equal in the points won on 1st serve and second serve. Djokovic has not been good at net, where Federer has been quite good, though not excellent. Djokvic leads Fed in the break points won, and with Djokovic as one of the best returners on the tour, Federer will have to raise his level. Interestingly, Federer has won more return points as compared to Djokovic.

It will all come down to Federer's serve, his concentration lapses, and of-course big points. Lately Federer has been struggling against Djokovic. Djokovic will need to relax and play his game like he has been doing over the year and a half. The interesting thing to note in their previous matches has been that the player having an aggressive ratio (points won on return/points lost on serve) of more than one has gone onto win the match.

Federer in his previous 7 semi-final showings has never lost here at Wimbledon. Djokovic on the other hand is 2-1 in his previous 3 semi-final showings here at Wimbledon. There is a lot at stake in this match, the coveted top spot and a chance to make a final run for this year's Wimbledon. For Federer, he will have a chance to equal Samprass's record of 7 Wimbledon crowns, should he get through the semi-finals and a chance to equal Samprass's record of most weeks spent at the top spot.

Federer is due for another Grand-Slam title, having failed to win one since Australian Open 2010, and though my heart tells me to pick Federer, I will go with Djokovic.

Pick: Djokovic in 5 sets.

Who do you think will win the match????
Please find the preview of the other semi-final here.


  1. Correction done :) Thanks for identifying though, I got them reversed ;)

  2. Beautiful put! My heart also goes Roger but my brain take Novak because Novak makes less mistakes than Roger normally does and Roger has done 40 unforceds or more the last three games against Novak and that is not good enoughe.

  3. Thanks crazymme for the appreciation :)

    Yup, true Federer will have to keep his unforced errors under control if he is to have any chance. I am keeping my fingers crossed for him though ;)

  4. Yes, the thing is that Federer must be focus the whole game and not only for a set or so. He has often played great in the matches but just for a While, i guess its a mentally thing.

  5. True! But i thing it is more of an age thing and not mental thing. We all know how mentally tough he has been over the years! If he can avoid those concentration

  6. Ohh, I didnt believe this but Roger showed some good tennis and today it was Novak who did most Unforced, 9 more then roger for being exact. When Novak beat Roger in France, Rger did more then 30 unforced more so Novak wasnt that bad today I just think that roger was better. The swedish commentators says that Murray will win and that federer has problem with him, do you have any statistic with them also?

  7. Yup he did great play great :) I just posted the post match preview of Federer vs Djokovic and Murray vs Tsonga :)
    and currently I am working on Federer vs Murray Final preview :)
    Hope to upload it soon as well :)
    Thank you so much for showing up and going through the article and commenting :) It means a lot man :)

  8. No problem, i have already told my friends about it and i think it´s good! Let´s see what the game on sunday will show for us, i believe i have problem to sleep until then:D

  9. Thanks for sharing this site with your friends :)
    The final preview is up :) and I too am keeping fingers crossed for Federer. Both players have a lot on the line!